Title: Tests of Policy Ineffectiveness in Macroeconometrics Author:Smith, Ron Subject:Ideas.Repec.Org/P/Ces/Ceswps/_4871.Html Description:
This paper proposes tests of policy ineffectiveness in the context of macroeconometric rational expectations models. It is assumed that there is a policy intervention that takes the form of changes in the parameters of a policy rule, and that there are sufficient observations before and after the intervention. The test is based on the difference between the realisations of the outcome variable of interest and counterfactuals based on no policy intervention, using only the pre-intervention parameter estimates, and in consequence the Lucas Critique does not apply. The paper develops tests of policy ineffectiveness for a full structural model, with and without exogenous, policy or non-policy, variables. Asymptotic distributions of the proposed tests are derived both when the post intervention sample is fixed as the pre-intervention sample expands, and when both samples rise jointly but at different rates. The performance of the test is illustrated by a simulated policy analysis of a three...
Is part of:
IDEAS Working Paper Series from RePEc, 2014
Title: Josef Meyer revolutionise the wagon bogie : Ron Smith reports on major new development Author:Smith, Ron Is part of:
Swiss express : the Swiss Railways Society journal, 01 September 2011, Issue 107, p.28
Title: Frauenfeld-Wil-Bahn place a special order : Ron Smith reports on this small railway in the NE of Switzerland and its links with Stadler Author:Smith, Ron Is part of:
Swiss express : the Swiss Railways Society journal, 01 December 2011, Issue 108, p.15
Title: Swiss rail freight news : Alpine Cargo : Ron Smith looks at a new name in Swiss rail freight Author:Smith, Ron Is part of:
Swiss express : the Swiss Railways Society journal, 01 June 2013, Issue 114, p.32
Title: Rigibahnen 2012 : Ron Smith looks at the latest developments on Europe's first rack railway Author:Smith, Ron Is part of:
Swiss express : the Swiss Railways Society journal, 01 March 2012, Issue 109, p.22
Title: Counterfactual Analysis in Macroeconometrics: An Empirical Investigation into the Effects of Quantitative Easing Author:Smith, Ron Subject:Ideas.Repec.Org/P/Ces/Ceswps/_3879.Html Description:
This paper is concerned with ex ante and ex post counterfactual analyses in the case of macroeconometric applications where a single unit is observed before and after a given policy intervention. It distinguishes between cases where the policy change affects the model's parameters and where it does not. It is argued that for ex post policy evaluation it is important that outcomes are conditioned on ex post realized variables that are invariant to the policy change but nevertheless influence the outcomes. The effects of the control variables that are determined endogenously with the policy outcomes can be solved out for the policy evaluation exercise. An ex post policy ineffectiveness test statistic is proposed. The analysis is applied to the evaluation of the effects of the quantitative easing (QE) in the UK after March 2009. It is estimated that a 100 basis points reduction in the spread due to QE has an impact effect on output growth of about one percentage point, but the policy impact...
Is part of:
IDEAS Working Paper Series from RePEc, 2012